Last checked: November 2026. Figures are for tax year 2026; confirm on IRS.gov before you pay.
The fourth and final estimated tax payment for 2026 is due Friday, January 15, 2027. To avoid a federal underpayment penalty, your 2026 estimated payments plus any withholding generally need to reach the smaller of 90% of your 2026 tax or 100% of your 2025 tax. That second figure becomes 110% if your 2025 adjusted gross income (AGI) was over $150,000, or over $75,000 if you're married filing separately. You also generally don't owe estimated tax if you'll owe less than $1,000 after withholding and refundable credits. Your Q4 payment is whatever is left to reach your target.
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The short answer
According to the 2026 Form 1040-ES, the four 2026 payment dates are April 15, 2026, June 15, 2026, September 15, 2026, and January 15, 2027. Paying by mid-January is a three-part calculation:
| Line | What it is | Your number |
|---|---|---|
| A | Your target for the year (the safe harbor you choose, Step 1) | $_____ |
| B | What you've already paid for 2026: estimated payments plus withholding (Step 2) | $_____ |
| C | A minus B: the amount to pay by January 15, 2027 (Step 3) | $_____ |
The rest of this post fills in that table for one hypothetical freelancer so you can repeat it with your own figures.
Step 1: Pick your target with the safe harbor rules
The IRS rules in the 2026 Form 1040-ES and Publication 505 (2026) give you a choice of targets. You only need to hit the smaller one.
100% (or 110%) of last year's tax: the predictable option
Look at the total tax on your 2025 return. If your 2025 AGI was $150,000 or less ($75,000 or less if married filing separately for 2026), your target is 100% of that number. Above that AGI, it's 110%. Your 2025 return must cover a full 12 months. This target is fixed the day you file your 2025 return, so it doesn't change if 2026 turns out to be a big year. That's why many freelancers with growing income use it.
90% of this year's tax: better if 2026 income dropped
If your income fell in 2026, 90% of your expected 2026 tax may be the lower target. The catch is that you're estimating. If December brings in more work than you planned, the target moves up. The worksheet in Form 1040-ES walks through the estimate; the example below shows a simplified version.
The under-$1,000 rule
According to Form 1040-ES, you generally must pay estimated tax for 2026 only if you expect to owe at least $1,000 after subtracting withholding and refundable credits. Farmers and fishers use 66⅔% instead of 90% and have their own January rules.
Step 2: Add up what you've already paid
Count every estimated payment you've made for tax year 2026, plus any 2025 overpayment you applied to 2026. Then add federal income tax withheld from a W-2 job, a spouse's job if you file jointly, a pension, or unemployment benefits.
Withholding has a useful timing rule. According to the Instructions for Form 2210, withheld tax is treated as paid one-fourth on each payment due date unless you show otherwise. Estimated payments don't work that way. Each one counts on the day you make it.
Step 3: Do the math (worked example)
Example freelancer (hypothetical): single, no W-2 job, no other income, takes the standard deduction. Total tax on the 2025 return was $6,400, and 2025 AGI was under $150,000. Net profit from self-employment for 2026 is expected to be $42,000.
Part 1: The prior-year target
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| 2025 total tax | $6,400 |
| Safe harbor percentage (2025 AGI not over $150,000) | 100% |
| Prior-year target | $6,400 |
| Even quarterly share ($6,400 ÷ 4) | $1,600 |
| Paid: April $1,600 + June $1,600 + September $1,000 | $4,200 |
| Left to pay by January 15, 2027 ($6,400 − $4,200) | $2,200 |
Paying $2,200 by January 15, 2027 brings the total to $6,400 and covers the fourth installment. The September payment, though, was $600 short of the $1,600 due then. The Form 2210 instructions say payments are applied first to any underpayment on an earlier installment, even if you designate a payment for a later period. So the first $600 of the January payment fills the September gap, and the remaining $1,600 covers January.
That means a small penalty can still apply to the $600 for the days it was late, from September 15, 2026 to January 15, 2027 (122 days). The IRS set the underpayment rate at 7% a year for the quarter starting October 1, 2026, unchanged from the prior quarter. A rough estimate is $600 × 7% × 122 ÷ 365, or about $14. The exact amount comes from Form 2210 and depends on the 2027 rate and the date you actually pay.
Part 2: The current-year check (90% of 2026 tax)
Now check whether 90% of the 2026 tax would be a lower target. Every rate and figure below comes from the 2026 Form 1040-ES worksheets and tax rate schedules and the IRS self-employment tax page.
| Line | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Net self-employment profit | Given | $42,000 |
| 2. Net earnings subject to SE tax | $42,000 × 92.35% | $38,787 |
| 3. Social Security part | $38,787 × 12.4% | $4,809.59 |
| 4. Medicare part | $38,787 × 2.9% | $1,124.82 |
| 5. Self-employment tax | Lines 3 + 4 ($5,934.41), rounded | $5,934 |
| 6. Deduction for half of SE tax | $5,934 × 50% | $2,967 |
| 7. AGI | $42,000 − $2,967 | $39,033 |
| 8. Minus 2026 standard deduction (single) | $39,033 − $16,100 | $22,933 |
| 9. QBI deduction | Lesser of 20% × $39,033 ($7,807) or 20% × $22,933 ($4,587) | $4,587 |
| 10. Taxable income | $22,933 − $4,587 | $18,346 |
| 11. Income tax (2026 single schedule) | $1,240 + 12% × ($18,346 − $12,400) | $1,954 |
| 12. Total 2026 tax | $1,954 + $5,934 | $7,888 |
| 13. 90% of 2026 tax | $7,888 × 90% | $7,099 |
Some notes on those lines. The combined 15.3% rate and its 12.4% and 2.9% parts are from the IRS self-employment tax page. The Social Security part applies only up to the 2026 wage base of $184,500, which doesn't matter at this income. The $16,100 standard deduction and the 10% and 12% brackets (12% starts above $12,400 for single filers) are from the 2026 tax rate schedules in Form 1040-ES.
For line 9, the IRS QBI deduction page explains that the deduction is generally 20% of qualified business income, which is reduced by the deductible part of SE tax, and is limited to 20% of taxable income before the deduction. This example is far below the 2026 threshold of $201,750 for single filers set in Revenue Procedure 2025-32, above which other limits can apply.
Part 3: Pick the smaller target
| Target | Amount |
|---|---|
| 100% of 2025 tax | $6,400 |
| 90% of 2026 tax | $7,099 |
| Smaller target (line A) | $6,400 |
| Already paid (line B) | $4,200 |
| Pay by January 15, 2027 (line C) | $2,200 |
In this example, the prior-year target is lower, so $2,200 is the payment that avoids a penalty on the fourth installment. This freelancer would still owe the rest of the 2026 tax, $7,888 − $6,400 = $1,488, when filing the 2026 return by the regular deadline. The safe harbor prevents the penalty. It doesn't reduce the tax.
Run both every time. If this same freelancer's 2026 profit had dropped to $25,000, the same steps give a 2026 total tax of about $4,103, and 90% of that is about $3,693. That's well under $6,400, so the current-year target would be the lower one.
If your income came mostly late in the year: the annualized installment method
The calculation above assumes the target is split into four equal parts. If most of your 2026 income arrived in the fall, equal parts may overstate what you owed earlier in the year. The annualized income installment method figures each installment from the income you actually earned through the end of each period. According to Form 1040-ES, if you use it, you file Form 2210 with Schedule AI attached to your 2026 return, even if no penalty is owed. It takes more work and income records by period, but it can remove or reduce a penalty on earlier installments.
Option: skip the Q4 payment by filing early
Form 1040-ES says you don't have to make the January 15, 2027 payment if you file your 2026 return by February 1, 2027 and pay the entire balance due with it. Publication 505 states this as January 31, 2027, which falls on a Sunday. This option only covers the fourth installment. Any penalty for the first three installments still applies. Publication 505's example figures it up to the date the return is filed and the balance paid. It only works if your 1099s and records are ready in January.
How to pay
Publication 505 lists these ways to pay estimated tax:
- Your IRS Online Account, which also shows the payments you've already made.
- IRS Direct Pay, which takes money directly from a checking or savings account.
- EFTPS, the Electronic Federal Tax Payment System, which has no fee but requires enrollment.
- Debit or credit card through an IRS-authorized card processor, which charges a fee.
- Check or money order with a 2026 Form 1040-ES voucher.
Whichever you use, choose estimated tax (Form 1040-ES) and tax year 2026, not 2027. Payment options are listed on the IRS payments page. If you mail a check, Form 1040-ES warns that under a recent clarification of postmark rules, the postmark date is the date USPS processes the mail at a facility. That may be later than the day you drop it off, so mail early or pay online.
State estimated tax
Federal estimated tax is only half the picture if your state has an income tax. Many states require their own quarterly payments, with their own due dates and safe harbor rules. Check your state revenue department's website for its fourth-quarter 2026 date and payment portal. Federal payments don't count toward state tax, or the reverse.
What if you can't pay it all?
Pay what you can by January 15, 2027. The underpayment penalty works like interest: the Form 2210 instructions say it's figured on each installment's shortfall for the number of days it stays unpaid, at the IRS underpayment rate. A partial payment shrinks the amount that's accruing, and paying a few weeks late costs less than paying months late.
FAQ
I started freelancing in late 2026. Do I need to make a Q4 payment at all?
Possibly. Publication 505 says that if you first have income subject to estimated tax after August 31, your one payment for the year is due January 15 of the next year. Form 1040-ES also has an exception: if you were a U.S. citizen or resident all of 2025 and had no tax liability for that full year, you don't have to pay estimated tax for 2026. You'd still owe the tax when you file.
Can I increase my W-2 withholding in December instead of paying estimated tax?
Yes, if you have a job. Form 1040-ES says you can file a new Form W-4 with your employer to have more tax withheld. Because withholding is generally treated as paid evenly across the four due dates, extra tax withheld in December can help cover shortfalls from earlier in the year. Estimated payments can't do that. Ask your payroll office how soon a new W-4 takes effect.
Does a 1099-K or 1099-NEC change how much estimated tax I owe?
No. The forms report income, but your tax is based on your actual income and expenses, whether or not you get a form. Income with no 1099 still counts, and a 1099-K total isn't your profit.
This article is general information, not legal or tax advice. The IRS and your state tax agency decide what you owe; check with them or a qualified tax professional for your situation. See our Disclaimer and read about AidPlain.
